Reexamining Civilian Preferences in Civil War: A Survey in Afghanistan

How do civilians react to changing authority in civil war? We investigate this question in Afghanistan using survey data from The Asia Foundation following the end of U.S.-led combat operations in 2014. I demonstrate that there is clear evidence that civilian attitudes are indeed conditional on the following three-way interaction: territorial control, ethnicity, and survival. For instance, there is a notable and statistically significant distinction between Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns under Taliban control in their approval of the Afghan Government. I bring largely unused country-wide individual-level data to bear on analyzing civilian wartime beliefs. To view this research project, please click here.